Tigre Res. 0–1 Unión Santa Fe Res.: Result & Stats

Tigre Res.

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Unión Santa Fe Res.

8/7/2024

Reserve League · 2nd Phase - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Tigre Res.42%

×Draw27%

Unión Santa Fe Res.31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tigre Res.Expected goals in this matchUnión Santa Fe Res.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.13

Tigre Res.

1.36

Unión Santa Fe Res.

1.13

Tigre Res. creates 20% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 61 away

1.23

creates per match

1.07

1.18

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Tigre Res.

1.23

Unión Santa Fe Res.

1.07

allows per match

Tigre Res.

1.18

Unión Santa Fe Res.

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tigre Res.+0.00on par

Unión Santa Fe Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigre Res. ↓

Unión Santa Fe Res. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tigre Res. or draw

69%

Tigre Res. or Unión Santa Fe Res.

73%

Draw or Unión Santa Fe Res.

58%

Winning margin

Tigre Res. wins by 2+

20%

Unión Santa Fe Res. wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tigre Res. 1+ goals

74%

Tigre Res. 2+ goals

39%

Tigre Res. 3+ goals

16%

Unión Santa Fe Res. 1+ goals

68%

Unión Santa Fe Res. 2+ goals

31%

Unión Santa Fe Res. 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tigre Res. (draw refunded)

57%

Unión Santa Fe Res. (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigre Res. at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.18 · 62 matches

Unión Santa Fe Res. away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.49 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigre Res. attack 1.23 + Unión Santa Fe Res. defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Unión Santa Fe Res. attack 1.07 + Tigre Res. defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tigre Res. scores more

42%

level

27%

Unión Santa Fe Res. scores more

31%

Tigre Res. at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tigre Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff