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Union Sandersdorf vs 1. FC Merseburg — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Union Sandersdorf
Union Sandersdorf
CANC
13:00
1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
2/28/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 21Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Sandersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Union Sandersdorf73%
×Draw17%
1. FC Merseburg11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Sandersdorf
2.42
1. FC Merseburg
0.80

Union Sandersdorf creates 203% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 12 away

creates per match

Union Sandersdorf
1.58
1. FC Merseburg
0.42

allows per match

Union Sandersdorf
1.19
1. FC Merseburg
3.25

finishing

Union Sandersdorf+0.00on par
1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sandersdorf ↓

1. FC Merseburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Union Sandersdorf or draw
89%
Union Sandersdorf or 1. FC Merseburg
83%
Draw or 1. FC Merseburg
27%

Winning margin

Union Sandersdorf wins by 2+
50%
1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Union Sandersdorf 1+ goals
91%
Union Sandersdorf 2+ goals
69%
Union Sandersdorf 3+ goals
43%
1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
55%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
19%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Union Sandersdorf (draw refunded)
87%
1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sandersdorf at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

1. FC Merseburg away — creates 0.42, concedes 3.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sandersdorf attack 1.58 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.42

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.42 + Union Sandersdorf defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Union Sandersdorf scores more
73%
level
17%
1. FC Merseburg scores more
11%

Union Sandersdorf at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Union Sandersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Union Sandersdorf vs 1. FC Merseburg — Match Preview

Union Sandersdorf face 1. FC Merseburg on February 28, 2021 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Süd fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Union Sandersdorf host 1. FC Merseburg at Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Sandersdorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.