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1. FC Merseburg vs Union Sandersdorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
CANC
12:00
Union Sandersdorf
Union Sandersdorf
5/29/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 30Stadtstadion Merseburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

1. FC Merseburg28%
×Draw26%
Union Sandersdorf46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Merseburg
1.08
Union Sandersdorf
1.46

Union Sandersdorf creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 81 away

creates per match

1. FC Merseburg
0.55
Union Sandersdorf
1.19

allows per match

1. FC Merseburg
1.73
Union Sandersdorf
1.60

finishing

1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par
Union Sandersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Merseburg ↓

Union Sandersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

1. FC Merseburg or draw
54%
1. FC Merseburg or Union Sandersdorf
74%
Draw or Union Sandersdorf
72%

Winning margin

1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
11%
Union Sandersdorf wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
66%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
29%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
10%
Union Sandersdorf 1+ goals
77%
Union Sandersdorf 2+ goals
43%
Union Sandersdorf 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
38%
Union Sandersdorf (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Merseburg at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Union Sandersdorf away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.55 + Union Sandersdorf defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.08

Union Sandersdorf attack 1.19 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

1. FC Merseburg scores more
28%
level
26%
Union Sandersdorf scores more
46%

Union Sandersdorf at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union Sandersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: 1. FC Merseburg host Union Sandersdorf

May 29, 2022: 1. FC Merseburg take on Union Sandersdorf in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

1. FC Merseburg host Union Sandersdorf at Stadtstadion Merseburg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.