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Union San Felipe vs Santiago Wanderers — Primera B 2026

Union San Felipe
Union San Felipe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Santiago Wanderers
Santiago Wanderers
2/28/2026Primera BPrimera B · Round 2Estadio Municipal de San Felipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Union San Felipe40%
×Draw28%
Santiago Wanderers31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union San Felipe
1.23
Santiago Wanderers
1.04

Union San Felipe creates 18% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 94 away

creates per match

Union San Felipe
1.18
Santiago Wanderers
1.16

allows per match

Union San Felipe
0.92
Santiago Wanderers
1.29

finishing

Union San Felipe+0.00on par
Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union San Felipe ↓

Santiago Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Union San Felipe or draw
69%
Union San Felipe or Santiago Wanderers
72%
Draw or Santiago Wanderers
60%

Winning margin

Union San Felipe wins by 2+
18%
Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Union San Felipe 1+ goals
71%
Union San Felipe 2+ goals
35%
Union San Felipe 3+ goals
13%
Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals
65%
Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals
28%
Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Union San Felipe (draw refunded)
57%
Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union San Felipe at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.92 · 120 matches

Santiago Wanderers away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.29 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union San Felipe attack 1.18 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.16 + Union San Felipe defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Union San Felipe scores more
40%
level
28%
Santiago Wanderers scores more
31%

Union San Felipe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union San Felipe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union San Felipe vs Santiago Wanderers

Union San Felipe and Santiago Wanderers drew 1-1 in Primera B on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de San Felipe in San Felipe.