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Santiago Wanderers vs Union San Felipe — Copa Chile 2019

Santiago Wanderers
Santiago Wanderers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Union San Felipe
Union San Felipe
5/12/2025Copa ChileCopa Chile · Group Stage - 6Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Santiago Wanderers45%
×Draw26%
Union San Felipe29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santiago Wanderers
1.46
Union San Felipe
1.13

Santiago Wanderers creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Santiago Wanderers
1.27
Union San Felipe
0.71

allows per match

Santiago Wanderers
1.55
Union San Felipe
1.64

finishing

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par
Union San Felipe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Wanderers ↓

Union San Felipe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Santiago Wanderers or draw
71%
Santiago Wanderers or Union San Felipe
74%
Draw or Union San Felipe
55%

Winning margin

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+
22%
Union San Felipe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals
77%
Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals
43%
Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals
18%
Union San Felipe 1+ goals
68%
Union San Felipe 2+ goals
31%
Union San Felipe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)
60%
Union San Felipe (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Wanderers at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Union San Felipe away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.27 + Union San Felipe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Union San Felipe attack 0.71 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Santiago Wanderers scores more
45%
level
26%
Union San Felipe scores more
29%

Santiago Wanderers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Santiago Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santiago Wanderers vs Union San Felipe

Union San Felipe beat Santiago Wanderers 1-0 in Copa Chile on May 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña in Quillota.