Union San Felipe 1–2 Santiago Wanderers

Union San Felipe

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Santiago Wanderers

3/17/2024

Primera B · Round 4Estadio Municipal de San Felipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Union San Felipe41%

×Draw28%

Santiago Wanderers31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union San FelipeExpected goals in this matchSantiago Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.04

Union San Felipe

1.24

Santiago Wanderers

1.04

Union San Felipe creates 19% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 94 away

1.19

creates per match

1.16

0.92

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Union San Felipe

1.19

Santiago Wanderers

1.16

allows per match

Union San Felipe

0.92

Santiago Wanderers

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union San Felipe+0.00on par

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union San Felipe ↓

Santiago Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Union San Felipe or draw

69%

Union San Felipe or Santiago Wanderers

72%

Draw or Santiago Wanderers

59%

Winning margin

Union San Felipe wins by 2+

18%

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Union San Felipe 1+ goals

71%

Union San Felipe 2+ goals

35%

Union San Felipe 3+ goals

13%

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals

65%

Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals

28%

Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Union San Felipe (draw refunded)

57%

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union San Felipe at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.92 · 121 matches

Santiago Wanderers away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.29 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union San Felipe attack 1.19 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.24

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.16 + Union San Felipe defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Union San Felipe scores more

41%

level

28%

Santiago Wanderers scores more

31%

Union San Felipe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union San Felipe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff