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Union San Felipe vs San Luis — Primera B 2026

Union San Felipe
Union San Felipe
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Luis
San Luis
7/27/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 18Estadio Municipal de San Felipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Union San Felipe45%
×Draw28%
San Luis27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union San Felipe
1.34
San Luis
0.97

Union San Felipe creates 38% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 111 away

creates per match

Union San Felipe
1.19
San Luis
1.01

allows per match

Union San Felipe
0.92
San Luis
1.50

finishing

Union San Felipe+0.00on par
San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union San Felipe ↓

San Luis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Union San Felipe or draw
73%
Union San Felipe or San Luis
72%
Draw or San Luis
55%

Winning margin

Union San Felipe wins by 2+
21%
San Luis wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Union San Felipe 1+ goals
74%
Union San Felipe 2+ goals
39%
Union San Felipe 3+ goals
15%
San Luis 1+ goals
62%
San Luis 2+ goals
25%
San Luis 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Union San Felipe (draw refunded)
63%
San Luis (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union San Felipe at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.92 · 121 matches

San Luis away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.50 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union San Felipe attack 1.19 + San Luis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

San Luis attack 1.01 + Union San Felipe defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Union San Felipe scores more
45%
level
28%
San Luis scores more
27%

Union San Felipe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Union San Felipe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union San Felipe vs San Luis

Union San Felipe and San Luis drew 0-0 in Primera B on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de San Felipe in San Felipe.