San Luis vs Union San Felipe — Primera B 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 112+ matches
San Luis43%
Union San Felipe29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
San Luis creates 27% more chances
Season form · 112 home / 122 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
San Luis ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
San Luis at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 112 matches
Union San Felipe away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 122 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
San Luis attack 1.15 + Union San Felipe defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.35
Union San Felipe attack 1.00 + San Luis defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
San Luis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Cobreloa
San Marcos de Arica
Antofagasta
Santiago Wanderers
Deportes Copiapo
MagallanesSan Luis
Deportes Temuco
Concepción
RecoletaUnion San Felipe
Curico Unido
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Santa Cruz
Rangers de Talca
D. Puerto Montt
Union Espanola
Santiago Morning
Deportes IquiqueIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
San Luis host Union San Felipe on Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 00:00. The match is part of the Primera B 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: San Luis vs Union San Felipe
San Luis beat Union San Felipe 2-1 in Primera B on April 12, 2025.
The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña in Quillota.