Union San Felipe 0–1 D. Melipilla: Result & Stats

Union San Felipe

Pens

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

D. Melipilla

2/7/2021

Primera B · Promotion Play-offs - FinalsEstadio Municipal de San Felipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Union San Felipe44%

×Draw28%

D. Melipilla28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union San FelipeExpected goals in this matchD. Melipilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.98

Union San Felipe

1.30

D. Melipilla

0.98

Union San Felipe creates 33% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 52 away

1.19

creates per match

1.04

0.92

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Union San Felipe

1.19

D. Melipilla

1.04

allows per match

Union San Felipe

0.92

D. Melipilla

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union San Felipe+0.00on par

D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union San Felipe ↓

D. Melipilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Union San Felipe or draw

72%

Union San Felipe or D. Melipilla

72%

Draw or D. Melipilla

56%

Winning margin

Union San Felipe wins by 2+

20%

D. Melipilla wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union San Felipe 1+ goals

73%

Union San Felipe 2+ goals

37%

Union San Felipe 3+ goals

14%

D. Melipilla 1+ goals

62%

D. Melipilla 2+ goals

26%

D. Melipilla 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Union San Felipe (draw refunded)

61%

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union San Felipe at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.92 · 121 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union San Felipe attack 1.19 + D. Melipilla defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

D. Melipilla attack 1.04 + Union San Felipe defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Union San Felipe scores more

44%

level

28%

D. Melipilla scores more

28%

Union San Felipe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Union San Felipe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff