Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

D. Melipilla vs Union San Felipe — Copa Chile 2019

D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Union San Felipe
Union San Felipe
6/15/2024Copa ChileCopa Chile · Regional 8th finalsEstadio Soinca Bata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

D. Melipilla50%
×Draw32%
Union San Felipe18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Melipilla
1.12
Union San Felipe
0.55

D. Melipilla creates 104% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

D. Melipilla
0.60
Union San Felipe
0.71

allows per match

D. Melipilla
0.40
Union San Felipe
1.64

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par
Union San Felipe+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Union San Felipe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw
82%
D. Melipilla or Union San Felipe
68%
Draw or Union San Felipe
50%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+
21%
Union San Felipe wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals
67%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
31%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
10%
Union San Felipe 1+ goals
42%
Union San Felipe 2+ goals
11%
Union San Felipe 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
73%
Union San Felipe (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Union San Felipe away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 0.60 + Union San Felipe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.12

Union San Felipe attack 0.71 + D. Melipilla defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

D. Melipilla scores more
50%
level
32%
Union San Felipe scores more
18%

D. Melipilla at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Chile: D. Melipilla 1–0 Union San Felipe

D. Melipilla beat Union San Felipe 1-0 in Copa Chile on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Soinca Bata in Peñaflor.