Union San Felipe 4–2 Curico Unido: Result & Stats

Union San Felipe

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Curico Unido

9/6/2025

Primera B · Round 24Estadio Municipal de San Felipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Union San Felipe45%

×Draw28%

Curico Unido27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union San FelipeExpected goals in this matchCurico Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.94

Union San Felipe

1.32

Curico Unido

0.94

Union San Felipe creates 40% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 38 away

1.19

creates per match

0.95

0.92

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Union San Felipe

1.19

Curico Unido

0.95

allows per match

Union San Felipe

0.92

Curico Unido

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union San Felipe+0.00on par

Curico Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union San Felipe ↓

Curico Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Union San Felipe or draw

73%

Union San Felipe or Curico Unido

72%

Draw or Curico Unido

55%

Winning margin

Union San Felipe wins by 2+

21%

Curico Unido wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Union San Felipe 1+ goals

73%

Union San Felipe 2+ goals

38%

Union San Felipe 3+ goals

15%

Curico Unido 1+ goals

61%

Curico Unido 2+ goals

24%

Curico Unido 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Union San Felipe (draw refunded)

63%

Curico Unido (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union San Felipe at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.92 · 121 matches

Curico Unido away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union San Felipe attack 1.19 + Curico Unido defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Curico Unido attack 0.95 + Union San Felipe defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Union San Felipe scores more

45%

level

28%

Curico Unido scores more

27%

Union San Felipe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Union San Felipe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff