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Curico Unido vs Union San Felipe — Primera B 2026

Curico Unido
Curico Unido
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Union San Felipe
Union San Felipe
2/24/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 1Estadio Bicentenario La Granja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Curico Unido41%
×Draw27%
Union San Felipe32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Curico Unido
1.33
Union San Felipe
1.16

Curico Unido creates 15% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 122 away

creates per match

Curico Unido
1.11
Union San Felipe
1.00

allows per match

Curico Unido
1.32
Union San Felipe
1.55

finishing

Curico Unido+0.00on par
Union San Felipe+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curico Unido ↓

Union San Felipe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Curico Unido or draw
68%
Curico Unido or Union San Felipe
73%
Draw or Union San Felipe
59%

Winning margin

Curico Unido wins by 2+
19%
Union San Felipe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Curico Unido 1+ goals
74%
Curico Unido 2+ goals
38%
Curico Unido 3+ goals
15%
Union San Felipe 1+ goals
69%
Union San Felipe 2+ goals
32%
Union San Felipe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Curico Unido (draw refunded)
56%
Union San Felipe (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curico Unido at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 37 matches

Union San Felipe away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curico Unido attack 1.11 + Union San Felipe defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Union San Felipe attack 1.00 + Curico Unido defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Curico Unido scores more
41%
level
27%
Union San Felipe scores more
32%

Curico Unido at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Curico Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Curico Unido vs Union San Felipe

Curico Unido beat Union San Felipe 2-0 in Primera B on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja in Curicó.