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Union Saint-Gilloise II vs Sporting Charleroi II — League #487 2026

Union Saint-Gilloise II
Union Saint-Gilloise II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sporting Charleroi II
Sporting Charleroi II
M. Asri 71'
J. Botaka 57'
S. Keita 45', 40'
A. Mahaux 82'
12/13/2025League #487League #487 · ACFF - 17Complexe Sportif Neerstalle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Union Saint-Gilloise II36%
×Draw23%
Sporting Charleroi II41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Saint-Gilloise II
1.58
Sporting Charleroi II
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Union Saint-Gilloise II
1.86
Sporting Charleroi II
1.57

allows per match

Union Saint-Gilloise II
1.86
Sporting Charleroi II
1.29

finishing

Union Saint-Gilloise II+0.00on par
Sporting Charleroi II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Saint-Gilloise II ↓

Sporting Charleroi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Union Saint-Gilloise II or draw
59%
Union Saint-Gilloise II or Sporting Charleroi II
77%
Draw or Sporting Charleroi II
64%

Winning margin

Union Saint-Gilloise II wins by 2+
17%
Sporting Charleroi II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Union Saint-Gilloise II 1+ goals
79%
Union Saint-Gilloise II 2+ goals
47%
Union Saint-Gilloise II 3+ goals
21%
Sporting Charleroi II 1+ goals
82%
Sporting Charleroi II 2+ goals
51%
Sporting Charleroi II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Union Saint-Gilloise II (draw refunded)
46%
Sporting Charleroi II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Saint-Gilloise II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Sporting Charleroi II away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Saint-Gilloise II attack 1.86 + Sporting Charleroi II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sporting Charleroi II attack 1.57 + Union Saint-Gilloise II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Union Saint-Gilloise II scores more
36%
level
23%
Sporting Charleroi II scores more
41%

Sporting Charleroi II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sporting Charleroi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
S. Keita
45'
S. Keita
57'
J. Botaka
71'
M. Asri
82'
A. Mahaux
Union
Sporting
N. Aarab
Manager: N. Aarab
F. Defays
Manager: F. Defays

League #487: Union Saint-Gilloise II 4–1 Sporting Charleroi II

Union Saint-Gilloise II beat Sporting Charleroi II 4-1 in League #487 on December 13, 2025.

Goals: S. Keita (40', 45'), J. Botaka (57'), M. Asri (71'), A. Mahaux (82').

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Neerstalle in Uccle (Ukkel).