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Sporting Charleroi II vs Union Saint-Gilloise II — League #487 2026

Sporting Charleroi II
Sporting Charleroi II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Union Saint-Gilloise II
Union Saint-Gilloise II
G. Pires de Carvalho 35'
N. Huygevelde 22'
10/26/2025League #487League #487 · ACFF - 10Stade de la Neuville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sporting Charleroi II34%
×Draw25%
Union Saint-Gilloise II41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Charleroi II
1.33
Union Saint-Gilloise II
1.50

Union Saint-Gilloise II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sporting Charleroi II
1.17
Union Saint-Gilloise II
1.67

allows per match

Sporting Charleroi II
1.33
Union Saint-Gilloise II
1.50

finishing

Sporting Charleroi II+0.00on par
Union Saint-Gilloise II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Charleroi II ↓

Union Saint-Gilloise II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sporting Charleroi II or draw
59%
Sporting Charleroi II or Union Saint-Gilloise II
75%
Draw or Union Saint-Gilloise II
66%

Winning margin

Sporting Charleroi II wins by 2+
15%
Union Saint-Gilloise II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sporting Charleroi II 1+ goals
74%
Sporting Charleroi II 2+ goals
38%
Sporting Charleroi II 3+ goals
15%
Union Saint-Gilloise II 1+ goals
78%
Union Saint-Gilloise II 2+ goals
44%
Union Saint-Gilloise II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sporting Charleroi II (draw refunded)
45%
Union Saint-Gilloise II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Charleroi II at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Union Saint-Gilloise II away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Charleroi II attack 1.17 + Union Saint-Gilloise II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Union Saint-Gilloise II attack 1.67 + Sporting Charleroi II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sporting Charleroi II scores more
34%
level
25%
Union Saint-Gilloise II scores more
41%

Union Saint-Gilloise II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union Saint-Gilloise II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
N. Huygevelde
35'
G. Pires de Carvalho
Sporting
Union
F. Defays
Manager: F. Defays
N. Aarab
Manager: N. Aarab

League #487: Sporting Charleroi II 0–2 Union Saint-Gilloise II

Union Saint-Gilloise II beat Sporting Charleroi II 2-0 in League #487 on October 26, 2025.

Goals: N. Huygevelde (22'), G. Pires de Carvalho (35').

The match was played at Stade de la Neuville in Charleroi.