Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Union Saint-Gilloise II vs Rochefort — League #487 2026

Union Saint-Gilloise II
Union Saint-Gilloise II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rochefort
Rochefort
S. Berradi 76'
N. Huygevelde 54'
J. Botaka 29'
D. El Mutacim 4'
11/15/2025League #487League #487 · ACFF - 13Complexe Sportif Neerstalle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Union Saint-Gilloise II45%
×Draw23%
Rochefort32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Saint-Gilloise II
1.77
Rochefort
1.47

Union Saint-Gilloise II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Union Saint-Gilloise II
1.86
Rochefort
1.08

allows per match

Union Saint-Gilloise II
1.86
Rochefort
1.67

finishing

Union Saint-Gilloise II+0.00on par
Rochefort+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Saint-Gilloise II ↓

Rochefort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Union Saint-Gilloise II or draw
68%
Union Saint-Gilloise II or Rochefort
77%
Draw or Rochefort
55%

Winning margin

Union Saint-Gilloise II wins by 2+
24%
Rochefort wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Union Saint-Gilloise II 1+ goals
83%
Union Saint-Gilloise II 2+ goals
53%
Union Saint-Gilloise II 3+ goals
26%
Rochefort 1+ goals
77%
Rochefort 2+ goals
43%
Rochefort 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Union Saint-Gilloise II (draw refunded)
58%
Rochefort (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Saint-Gilloise II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Rochefort away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Saint-Gilloise II attack 1.86 + Rochefort defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Rochefort attack 1.08 + Union Saint-Gilloise II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Union Saint-Gilloise II scores more
45%
level
23%
Rochefort scores more
32%

Union Saint-Gilloise II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Union Saint-Gilloise II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
D. El Mutacim
29'
J. Botaka
54'
N. Huygevelde
76'
S. Berradi
Union
Rochefort
N. Aarab
Manager: N. Aarab
J. Rentmeister
Manager: J. Rentmeister

League #487: Union Saint-Gilloise II 4–0 Rochefort

Union Saint-Gilloise II beat Rochefort 4-0 in League #487 on November 15, 2025.

Goals: D. El Mutacim (4'), J. Botaka (29'), N. Huygevelde (54'), S. Berradi (76').

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Neerstalle in Uccle (Ukkel).