Rochefort 1–3 Union Saint-Gilloise II

Rochefort

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Union Saint-Gilloise II

M. Cornet 70'

Cristian Makaté 89', 36'

Y. Stevens 33'

9/1/2024

League #487 · ACFF - 2Parc des Roches

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rochefort32%

×Draw25%

Union Saint-Gilloise II43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochefortExpected goals in this matchUnion Saint-Gilloise II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.52

Rochefort

1.28

Union Saint-Gilloise II

1.52

Union Saint-Gilloise II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

1.27

creates per match

1.43

1.60

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Rochefort

1.27

Union Saint-Gilloise II

1.43

allows per match

Rochefort

1.60

Union Saint-Gilloise II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochefort+0.00on par

Union Saint-Gilloise II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochefort ↓

Union Saint-Gilloise II →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rochefort or draw

57%

Rochefort or Union Saint-Gilloise II

75%

Draw or Union Saint-Gilloise II

68%

Winning margin

Rochefort wins by 2+

14%

Union Saint-Gilloise II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Rochefort 1+ goals

72%

Rochefort 2+ goals

37%

Rochefort 3+ goals

14%

Union Saint-Gilloise II 1+ goals

78%

Union Saint-Gilloise II 2+ goals

45%

Union Saint-Gilloise II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Rochefort (draw refunded)

43%

Union Saint-Gilloise II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rochefort at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Union Saint-Gilloise II away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rochefort attack 1.27 + Union Saint-Gilloise II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Union Saint-Gilloise II attack 1.43 + Rochefort defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rochefort scores more

32%

level

25%

Union Saint-Gilloise II scores more

43%

Union Saint-Gilloise II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Union Saint-Gilloise II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Y. Stevens

36'

Cristian Makaté

46'

M. Cornet← N. Janelas

46'

J. Libert← G. Gall

68'

N. Gosselain← G. Smal

70'

M. Cornet

75'

M. Asaidi← T. Cenci

79'

A. Sarr← M. Wilmots

85'

A. El Marabet← M. Dassy

86'

P. Laloux← A. Bonemme

88'

D. Ribeiro← M. Asri

89'

Cristian Makaté

Rochefort

Union

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Rentmeister

46'▲M. Cornet←▼N. Janelas

46'▲J. Libert←▼G. Gall

68'▲N. Gosselain←▼G. Smal

79'▲A. Sarr←▼M. Wilmots

86'▲P. Laloux←▼A. Bonemme

Rochefort substitutes

CornetLibertGosselainSarrLaloux

Manager: N. Aarab

75'▲M. Asaidi←▼T. Cenci

85'▲A. El Marabet←▼M. Dassy

88'▲D. Ribeiro←▼M. Asri

Union Saint-Gilloise II substitutes

AsaidiMarabetRibeiro