Union Rohrbach Berg 1–2 Weißkirchen / Allhaming

Union Rohrbach Berg

FT

1 – 2

Weißkirchen / Allhaming

8/16/2024

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 3Raiffeisen Arena Rohrbach-Berg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Union Rohrbach Berg34%

×Draw23%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Rohrbach BergExpected goals in this matchWeißkirchen / Allhaming

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.79

Union Rohrbach Berg

1.58

Weißkirchen / Allhaming

1.79

Weißkirchen / Allhaming creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 88 away

1.47

creates per match

1.77

1.80

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Union Rohrbach Berg

1.47

Weißkirchen / Allhaming

1.77

allows per match

Union Rohrbach Berg

1.80

Weißkirchen / Allhaming

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Rohrbach Berg+0.00on par

Weißkirchen / Allhaming+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Rohrbach Berg ↓

Weißkirchen / Allhaming →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Union Rohrbach Berg or draw

57%

Union Rohrbach Berg or Weißkirchen / Allhaming

77%

Draw or Weißkirchen / Allhaming

66%

Winning margin

Union Rohrbach Berg wins by 2+

17%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Union Rohrbach Berg 1+ goals

79%

Union Rohrbach Berg 2+ goals

47%

Union Rohrbach Berg 3+ goals

21%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming 1+ goals

83%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming 2+ goals

53%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Union Rohrbach Berg (draw refunded)

44%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Rohrbach Berg at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Weißkirchen / Allhaming away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.70 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Rohrbach Berg attack 1.47 + Weißkirchen / Allhaming defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.58

Weißkirchen / Allhaming attack 1.77 + Union Rohrbach Berg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Union Rohrbach Berg scores more

34%

level

23%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming scores more

43%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Weißkirchen / Allhaming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff