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Union Rohrbach Berg vs Pregarten — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union Rohrbach Berg
Union Rohrbach Berg
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Pregarten
Pregarten
3/15/2025Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 17Raiffeisen Arena Rohrbach-Berg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Union Rohrbach Berg41%
×Draw24%
Pregarten35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Rohrbach Berg
1.61
Pregarten
1.45

Union Rohrbach Berg creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 89 away

creates per match

Union Rohrbach Berg
1.47
Pregarten
1.09

allows per match

Union Rohrbach Berg
1.80
Pregarten
1.75

finishing

Union Rohrbach Berg+0.00on par
Pregarten+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Rohrbach Berg ↓

Pregarten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Union Rohrbach Berg or draw
65%
Union Rohrbach Berg or Pregarten
76%
Draw or Pregarten
59%

Winning margin

Union Rohrbach Berg wins by 2+
21%
Pregarten wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Union Rohrbach Berg 1+ goals
80%
Union Rohrbach Berg 2+ goals
48%
Union Rohrbach Berg 3+ goals
22%
Pregarten 1+ goals
77%
Pregarten 2+ goals
42%
Pregarten 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Union Rohrbach Berg (draw refunded)
55%
Pregarten (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Rohrbach Berg at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Pregarten away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.75 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Rohrbach Berg attack 1.47 + Pregarten defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.61

Pregarten attack 1.09 + Union Rohrbach Berg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Union Rohrbach Berg scores more
41%
level
24%
Pregarten scores more
35%

Union Rohrbach Berg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union Rohrbach Berg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Union Rohrbach Berg 0–4 Pregarten

Pregarten beat Union Rohrbach Berg 4-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Raiffeisen Arena Rohrbach-Berg in Rohrbach.