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Pregarten vs Union Rohrbach Berg — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Pregarten
Pregarten
FT
0 – 0
Union Rohrbach Berg
Union Rohrbach Berg
8/10/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 2Kornspitz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pregarten53%
×Draw23%
Union Rohrbach Berg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pregarten
1.86
Union Rohrbach Berg
1.17

Pregarten creates 59% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 15 away

creates per match

Pregarten
1.59
Union Rohrbach Berg
0.73

allows per match

Pregarten
1.61
Union Rohrbach Berg
2.13

finishing

Pregarten+0.00on par
Union Rohrbach Berg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pregarten ↓

Union Rohrbach Berg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pregarten or draw
76%
Pregarten or Union Rohrbach Berg
77%
Draw or Union Rohrbach Berg
47%

Winning margin

Pregarten wins by 2+
30%
Union Rohrbach Berg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pregarten 1+ goals
84%
Pregarten 2+ goals
55%
Pregarten 3+ goals
28%
Union Rohrbach Berg 1+ goals
69%
Union Rohrbach Berg 2+ goals
33%
Union Rohrbach Berg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pregarten (draw refunded)
69%
Union Rohrbach Berg (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pregarten at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.61 · 88 matches

Union Rohrbach Berg away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pregarten attack 1.59 + Union Rohrbach Berg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.86

Union Rohrbach Berg attack 0.73 + Pregarten defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pregarten scores more
53%
level
23%
Union Rohrbach Berg scores more
24%

Pregarten at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pregarten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Pregarten 0–0 Union Rohrbach Berg

Pregarten and Union Rohrbach Berg drew 0-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Kornspitz-Arena in Pregarten.