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Union Rohrbach Berg vs Bad Schallerbach — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union Rohrbach Berg
Union Rohrbach Berg
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bad Schallerbach
Bad Schallerbach
11/2/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 14Raiffeisen Arena Rohrbach-Berg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Union Rohrbach Berg39%
×Draw23%
Bad Schallerbach38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Rohrbach Berg
1.65
Bad Schallerbach
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 75 away

creates per match

Union Rohrbach Berg
1.47
Bad Schallerbach
1.48

allows per match

Union Rohrbach Berg
1.80
Bad Schallerbach
1.83

finishing

Union Rohrbach Berg+0.00on par
Bad Schallerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Rohrbach Berg ↓

Bad Schallerbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Union Rohrbach Berg or draw
62%
Union Rohrbach Berg or Bad Schallerbach
77%
Draw or Bad Schallerbach
61%

Winning margin

Union Rohrbach Berg wins by 2+
19%
Bad Schallerbach wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Union Rohrbach Berg 1+ goals
81%
Union Rohrbach Berg 2+ goals
49%
Union Rohrbach Berg 3+ goals
23%
Bad Schallerbach 1+ goals
81%
Bad Schallerbach 2+ goals
49%
Bad Schallerbach 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Union Rohrbach Berg (draw refunded)
50%
Bad Schallerbach (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Rohrbach Berg at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Bad Schallerbach away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.83 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Rohrbach Berg attack 1.47 + Bad Schallerbach defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

Bad Schallerbach attack 1.48 + Union Rohrbach Berg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Union Rohrbach Berg scores more
39%
level
23%
Bad Schallerbach scores more
38%

Union Rohrbach Berg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Rohrbach Berg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Union Rohrbach Berg 0–3 Bad Schallerbach

Bad Schallerbach beat Union Rohrbach Berg 3-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Raiffeisen Arena Rohrbach-Berg in Rohrbach.