Bad Schallerbach 2–0 Union Rohrbach Berg

Bad Schallerbach

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Union Rohrbach Berg

6/7/2025

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 29Sportplatz SV Sedda Bad Schallerbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bad Schallerbach62%

×Draw20%

Union Rohrbach Berg18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bad SchallerbachExpected goals in this matchUnion Rohrbach Berg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.07

Bad Schallerbach

2.14

Union Rohrbach Berg

1.07

Bad Schallerbach creates 100% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 15 away

2.15

creates per match

0.73

1.41

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Bad Schallerbach

2.15

Union Rohrbach Berg

0.73

allows per match

Bad Schallerbach

1.41

Union Rohrbach Berg

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bad Schallerbach+0.00on par

Union Rohrbach Berg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Schallerbach ↓

Union Rohrbach Berg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Bad Schallerbach or draw

82%

Bad Schallerbach or Union Rohrbach Berg

80%

Draw or Union Rohrbach Berg

38%

Winning margin

Bad Schallerbach wins by 2+

38%

Union Rohrbach Berg wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bad Schallerbach 1+ goals

88%

Bad Schallerbach 2+ goals

63%

Bad Schallerbach 3+ goals

36%

Union Rohrbach Berg 1+ goals

66%

Union Rohrbach Berg 2+ goals

29%

Union Rohrbach Berg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bad Schallerbach (draw refunded)

77%

Union Rohrbach Berg (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Schallerbach at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Union Rohrbach Berg away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Schallerbach attack 2.15 + Union Rohrbach Berg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.14

Union Rohrbach Berg attack 0.73 + Bad Schallerbach defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bad Schallerbach scores more

62%

level

20%

Union Rohrbach Berg scores more

18%

Bad Schallerbach at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bad Schallerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff