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Union RB Weinland Gamlit vs Liezen — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Union RB Weinland Gamlit
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
FT
2 – 1
Liezen
Liezen
9/20/2022Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 9Weinland-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Union RB Weinland Gamlit60%
×Draw20%
Liezen21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union RB Weinland Gamlit
2.28
Liezen
1.28

Union RB Weinland Gamlit creates 78% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 42 away

creates per match

Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.81
Liezen
0.76

allows per match

Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.80
Liezen
2.74

finishing

Union RB Weinland Gamlit+0.00on par
Liezen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union RB Weinland Gamlit ↓

Liezen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Union RB Weinland Gamlit or draw
79%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit or Liezen
80%
Draw or Liezen
40%

Winning margin

Union RB Weinland Gamlit wins by 2+
37%
Liezen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Union RB Weinland Gamlit 1+ goals
90%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 2+ goals
66%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 3+ goals
39%
Liezen 1+ goals
72%
Liezen 2+ goals
37%
Liezen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Union RB Weinland Gamlit (draw refunded)
74%
Liezen (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union RB Weinland Gamlit at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.80 · 88 matches

Liezen away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union RB Weinland Gamlit attack 1.81 + Liezen defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.28

Liezen attack 0.76 + Union RB Weinland Gamlit defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Union RB Weinland Gamlit scores more
60%
level
20%
Liezen scores more
21%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Union RB Weinland Gamlit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union RB Weinland Gamlit vs Liezen

Union RB Weinland Gamlit beat Liezen 2-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on September 20, 2022.

The match was played at Weinland-Stadion in Gamlitz.