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Liezen vs Union RB Weinland Gamlit — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Liezen
Liezen
CANC
17:00
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
4/2/2021Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 19Stadion Liezen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Liezen34%
×Draw23%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liezen
1.50
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.71

Union RB Weinland Gamlit creates 14% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 86 away

creates per match

Liezen
1.00
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.57

allows per match

Liezen
1.84
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
2.00

finishing

Liezen+0.00on par
Union RB Weinland Gamlit+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liezen ↓

Union RB Weinland Gamlit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Liezen or draw
57%
Liezen or Union RB Weinland Gamlit
77%
Draw or Union RB Weinland Gamlit
66%

Winning margin

Liezen wins by 2+
16%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Liezen 1+ goals
78%
Liezen 2+ goals
44%
Liezen 3+ goals
19%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 1+ goals
82%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 2+ goals
51%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Liezen (draw refunded)
44%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liezen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Union RB Weinland Gamlit away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liezen attack 1.00 + Union RB Weinland Gamlit defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Union RB Weinland Gamlit attack 1.57 + Liezen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Liezen scores more
34%
level
23%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit scores more
43%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Union RB Weinland Gamlit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Liezen host Union RB Weinland Gamlit

April 2, 2021: Liezen take on Union RB Weinland Gamlit in Landesliga - Steiermark. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Liezen host Union RB Weinland Gamlit at Stadion Liezen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.