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Union RB Weinland Gamlit vs Hitthaller St. Michael — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Union RB Weinland Gamlit
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
FT
3 – 2
Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
6/10/2022Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 30Weinland-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union RB Weinland Gamlit57%
×Draw20%
Hitthaller St. Michael23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union RB Weinland Gamlit
2.35
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.44

Union RB Weinland Gamlit creates 63% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 30 away

creates per match

Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.81
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.07

allows per match

Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.80
Hitthaller St. Michael
2.90

finishing

Union RB Weinland Gamlit+0.00on par
Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union RB Weinland Gamlit ↓

Hitthaller St. Michael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Union RB Weinland Gamlit or draw
77%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit or Hitthaller St. Michael
80%
Draw or Hitthaller St. Michael
43%

Winning margin

Union RB Weinland Gamlit wins by 2+
36%
Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Union RB Weinland Gamlit 1+ goals
90%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 2+ goals
68%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 3+ goals
41%
Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
76%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
42%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Union RB Weinland Gamlit (draw refunded)
71%
Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union RB Weinland Gamlit at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.80 · 88 matches

Hitthaller St. Michael away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union RB Weinland Gamlit attack 1.81 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.35

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.07 + Union RB Weinland Gamlit defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Union RB Weinland Gamlit scores more
57%
level
20%
Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
23%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Union RB Weinland Gamlit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Union RB Weinland Gamlit 3–2 Hitthaller St. Michael

Union RB Weinland Gamlit beat Hitthaller St. Michael 3-2 in Landesliga - Steiermark on June 10, 2022.

The match was played at Weinland-Stadion in Gamlitz.