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Hitthaller St. Michael vs Union RB Weinland Gamlit — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
CANC
18:00
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
3/12/2021Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 13Sportplatz Esv Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Hitthaller St. Michael34%
×Draw23%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hitthaller St. Michael
1.57
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.81

Union RB Weinland Gamlit creates 15% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 86 away

creates per match

Hitthaller St. Michael
1.15
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.57

allows per match

Hitthaller St. Michael
2.04
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
2.00

finishing

Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par
Union RB Weinland Gamlit+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitthaller St. Michael ↓

Union RB Weinland Gamlit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hitthaller St. Michael or draw
56%
Hitthaller St. Michael or Union RB Weinland Gamlit
77%
Draw or Union RB Weinland Gamlit
66%

Winning margin

Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
16%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
79%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
46%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
21%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 1+ goals
84%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 2+ goals
54%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
44%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitthaller St. Michael at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

Union RB Weinland Gamlit away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.15 + Union RB Weinland Gamlit defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Union RB Weinland Gamlit attack 1.57 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
34%
level
23%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit scores more
44%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Union RB Weinland Gamlit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hitthaller St. Michael face Union RB Weinland Gamlit (Landesliga - Steiermark)

Landesliga - Steiermark returns with Hitthaller St. Michael hosting Union RB Weinland Gamlit. Match starts March 12, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hitthaller St. Michael host Union RB Weinland Gamlit at Sportplatz Esv Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.