Union Omaha 3–1 Central Valley Fuego

Union Omaha

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Central Valley Fuego

M. Bronnik 59'

R. Jiba 53'

J. Gómez 15'

J. Mariona 89'

10/26/2024

USL League One · Round 14Werner Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Union Omaha55%

×Draw22%

Central Valley Fuego23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union OmahaExpected goals in this matchCentral Valley Fuego

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.19

Union Omaha

1.96

Central Valley Fuego

1.19

Union Omaha creates 65% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 42 away

1.96

creates per match

1.38

1.00

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Union Omaha

1.96

Central Valley Fuego

1.38

allows per match

Union Omaha

1.00

Central Valley Fuego

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Omaha+0.00on par

Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Omaha ↓

Central Valley Fuego →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Union Omaha or draw

77%

Union Omaha or Central Valley Fuego

78%

Draw or Central Valley Fuego

45%

Winning margin

Union Omaha wins by 2+

32%

Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Union Omaha 1+ goals

86%

Union Omaha 2+ goals

58%

Union Omaha 3+ goals

31%

Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals

70%

Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals

33%

Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Union Omaha (draw refunded)

71%

Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Omaha at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.00 · 92 matches

Central Valley Fuego away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Omaha attack 1.96 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.96

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.38 + Union Omaha defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Union Omaha scores more

55%

level

22%

Central Valley Fuego scores more

23%

Union Omaha at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Union Omaha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

20'

46'

46'

46'

A. Apollon← K. Garcia

47'

M. Bronnik

53'

R. Jiba

55'

B. Knapp

59'

M. Bronnik↳ B. Malone

62'

C. Ostrem← M. Schneider

70'

R. Jiba

73'

M. Rodríguez← Z. Lewis

73'

Z. Vazquez← S. Vinberg

82'

A. Midence

83'

R. Mendiola← J. Carrera

83'

O. Lemus← S. John-Brown

85'

A. Aoumaich← B. Knapp

89'

J. Mariona↳ Z. Vazquez

Union

Central

1

Zuluaga

7

▼

John-Brow

24

Bustamant

33

▼

Vinberg

15

Torr

10

▼

Carrera

20

Midence

8

Heckenber

34

▼

Garcia

9

Benson

32

⚽

Mariona

36

Lapsley

2

▼

Jérôme

5

Milanese

77

Bawa

27

⚽A

Jiba

13

Holt

23

▼

Schneider

15

▼

Knapp

11

▼

Lewis

21

⚽

▼

Gómez

70

Kunga

Manager: D. Casciato

46'▲M. Bronnik←▼J. Gómez

46'▲B. Malone←▼M. Jérôme

62'▲C. Ostrem←▼M. Schneider

73'▲M. Rodríguez←▼Z. Lewis

85'▲A. Aoumaich←▼B. Knapp

Union Omaha substitutes

18Bronnik3Malone20Ostrem99Rodríguez33Aoumaich7Gallardo24Nuhu4Mastrantonio

Manager: J. Jones

46'▲A. Apollon←▼K. Garcia

73'▲Z. Vazquez←▼S. Vinberg

83'▲R. Mendiola←▼J. Carrera

83'▲O. Lemus←▼S. John-Brown

Central Valley Fuego substitutes

3Apollon14Vazquez11Mendiola17Lemus23Ávilez