Central Valley Fuego 0–1 Union Omaha

Central Valley Fuego

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Union Omaha

Steevan dos Santos 90+6'

8/10/2024

USL League One Cup · Group Stage - 4Fresno State Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Central Valley Fuego42%

×Draw31%

Union Omaha27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Valley FuegoExpected goals in this matchUnion Omaha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.83

Central Valley Fuego

1.10

Union Omaha

0.83

Central Valley Fuego creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

0.33

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Central Valley Fuego

0.33

Union Omaha

1.00

allows per match

Central Valley Fuego

0.67

Union Omaha

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par

Union Omaha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Valley Fuego ↓

Union Omaha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Central Valley Fuego or draw

73%

Central Valley Fuego or Union Omaha

69%

Draw or Union Omaha

58%

Winning margin

Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+

17%

Union Omaha wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals

67%

Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals

30%

Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals

10%

Union Omaha 1+ goals

56%

Union Omaha 2+ goals

20%

Union Omaha 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)

60%

Union Omaha (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Valley Fuego at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Union Omaha away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Valley Fuego attack 0.33 + Union Omaha defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Union Omaha attack 1.00 + Central Valley Fuego defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Central Valley Fuego scores more

42%

level

31%

Union Omaha scores more

27%

Central Valley Fuego at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Central Valley Fuego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Midence← Z. Vazquez

46'

S. John-Brown← A. Apollon

46'

C. Torr← I. Yaya

60'

J. Carrera← T. Williams

60'

C. Heckenberg← B. Bustamante

62'

L. Kunga← J. Gómez

75'

M. Rodríguez← B. Malone

78'

L. Kunga

81'

M. Schneider

85'

N. Nortey← M. Schneider

90+5'

J. Carrera

90+9'

R. Cromwell

90+6'

Steevan dos Santos

Central

Union

36

Lapsley

5

Milanese

20

Ostrem

3

▼

Malone

4

Mastranto

7

Gallardo

23

▼

Schneider

15

Knapp

10

⚽

Santos

26

Acoff

21

▼

Gómez

1

Zuluaga

3

▼

Apollon

24

▼

Bustamant

4

Cromwell

17

Lemus

25

▼

Yaya

11

Mendiola

6

Dabo

19

▼

Williams

27

Lawal

14

▼

Vazquez

Manager: J. Jones

46'▲A. Midence←▼Z. Vazquez

46'▲S. John-Brown←▼A. Apollon

46'▲C. Torr←▼I. Yaya

60'▲J. Carrera←▼T. Williams

60'▲C. Heckenberg←▼B. Bustamante

Central Valley Fuego substitutes

20Midence7John-Brown15Torr10Carrera8Heckenberg12Opeyemi30Kabamba23Ávilez26Chalmers

Manager: D. Casciato

62'▲L. Kunga←▼J. Gómez

75'▲M. Rodríguez←▼B. Malone

85'▲N. Nortey←▼M. Schneider

Union Omaha substitutes

70Kunga99Rodríguez8Nortey11Lewis24Nuhu13Holt2Jérôme