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Union Nettetal vs Teutonia St.Tönis — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Union Nettetal
Union Nettetal
CANC
13:15
Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
5/16/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 41Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Union Nettetal40%
×Draw22%
Teutonia St.Tönis38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Nettetal
1.78
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 21 away

creates per match

Union Nettetal
1.70
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.90

allows per match

Union Nettetal
1.56
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.86

finishing

Union Nettetal+0.00on par
Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Nettetal ↓

Teutonia St.Tönis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Union Nettetal or draw
62%
Union Nettetal or Teutonia St.Tönis
78%
Draw or Teutonia St.Tönis
60%

Winning margin

Union Nettetal wins by 2+
21%
Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Union Nettetal 1+ goals
83%
Union Nettetal 2+ goals
53%
Union Nettetal 3+ goals
26%
Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
82%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
52%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)
51%
Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Nettetal at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.56 · 77 matches

Teutonia St.Tönis away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Nettetal attack 1.70 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.78

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.90 + Union Nettetal defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Union Nettetal scores more
40%
level
22%
Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
38%

Union Nettetal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union Nettetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Union Nettetal host Teutonia St.Tönis

May 16, 2021: Union Nettetal take on Teutonia St.Tönis in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Union Nettetal host Teutonia St.Tönis at Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.