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Teutonia St.Tönis vs Union Nettetal — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
CANC
14:30
Union Nettetal
Union Nettetal
12/6/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 18Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Teutonia St.Tönis53%
×Draw22%
Union Nettetal25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.96
Union Nettetal
1.29

Teutonia St.Tönis creates 52% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 74 away

creates per match

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.70
Union Nettetal
1.34

allows per match

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.25
Union Nettetal
2.23

finishing

Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par
Union Nettetal+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teutonia St.Tönis ↓

Union Nettetal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Teutonia St.Tönis or draw
75%
Teutonia St.Tönis or Union Nettetal
78%
Draw or Union Nettetal
47%

Winning margin

Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
31%
Union Nettetal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
86%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
58%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
31%
Union Nettetal 1+ goals
72%
Union Nettetal 2+ goals
37%
Union Nettetal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
68%
Union Nettetal (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teutonia St.Tönis at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Union Nettetal away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.70 + Union Nettetal defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.96

Union Nettetal attack 1.34 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
53%
level
22%
Union Nettetal scores more
25%

Teutonia St.Tönis at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Teutonia St.Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Teutonia St.Tönis vs Union Nettetal — Match Preview

Teutonia St.Tönis face Union Nettetal on December 6, 2020 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Teutonia St.Tönis host Union Nettetal at Jahn-Sport-Anlage.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.