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Union Nettetal vs SF Hamborn — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Union Nettetal
Union Nettetal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
5/12/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 38Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Union Nettetal50%
×Draw21%
SF Hamborn29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Nettetal
2.15
SF Hamborn
1.59

Union Nettetal creates 35% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 37 away

creates per match

Union Nettetal
1.70
SF Hamborn
1.62

allows per match

Union Nettetal
1.56
SF Hamborn
2.59

finishing

Union Nettetal+0.00on par
SF Hamborn+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Nettetal ↓

SF Hamborn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Union Nettetal or draw
71%
Union Nettetal or SF Hamborn
79%
Draw or SF Hamborn
50%

Winning margin

Union Nettetal wins by 2+
30%
SF Hamborn wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Union Nettetal 1+ goals
88%
Union Nettetal 2+ goals
63%
Union Nettetal 3+ goals
36%
SF Hamborn 1+ goals
80%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
47%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)
64%
SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Nettetal at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.56 · 77 matches

SF Hamborn away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Nettetal attack 1.70 + SF Hamborn defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.15

SF Hamborn attack 1.62 + Union Nettetal defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union Nettetal scores more
50%
level
21%
SF Hamborn scores more
29%

Union Nettetal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Union Nettetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Nettetal vs SF Hamborn

Union Nettetal beat SF Hamborn 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn in Nettetal.