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SF Hamborn vs Union Nettetal — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Union Nettetal
Union Nettetal
11/5/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 17Bezirkssportanlage Im Holtkamp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SF Hamborn46%
×Draw23%
Union Nettetal32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Hamborn
1.83
Union Nettetal
1.49

SF Hamborn creates 23% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 74 away

creates per match

SF Hamborn
1.44
Union Nettetal
1.34

allows per match

SF Hamborn
1.64
Union Nettetal
2.23

finishing

SF Hamborn+0.00on par
Union Nettetal+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Hamborn ↓

Union Nettetal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

SF Hamborn or draw
68%
SF Hamborn or Union Nettetal
77%
Draw or Union Nettetal
54%

Winning margin

SF Hamborn wins by 2+
25%
Union Nettetal wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SF Hamborn 1+ goals
84%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
54%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
28%
Union Nettetal 1+ goals
77%
Union Nettetal 2+ goals
44%
Union Nettetal 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
59%
Union Nettetal (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Hamborn at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

Union Nettetal away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Hamborn attack 1.44 + Union Nettetal defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.83

Union Nettetal attack 1.34 + SF Hamborn defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SF Hamborn scores more
46%
level
23%
Union Nettetal scores more
32%

SF Hamborn at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SF Hamborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SF Hamborn vs Union Nettetal

Union Nettetal beat SF Hamborn 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Im Holtkamp in Duisburg.