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Union Nettetal vs SC Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Union Nettetal
Union Nettetal
CANC
18:30
SC Velbert
SC Velbert
11/19/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 15Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Union Nettetal59%
×Draw20%
SC Velbert21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Nettetal
2.26
SC Velbert
1.28

Union Nettetal creates 77% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 22 away

creates per match

Union Nettetal
1.70
SC Velbert
1.00

allows per match

Union Nettetal
1.56
SC Velbert
2.82

finishing

Union Nettetal+0.00on par
SC Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Nettetal ↓

SC Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Union Nettetal or draw
79%
Union Nettetal or SC Velbert
80%
Draw or SC Velbert
41%

Winning margin

Union Nettetal wins by 2+
37%
SC Velbert wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Union Nettetal 1+ goals
89%
Union Nettetal 2+ goals
66%
Union Nettetal 3+ goals
39%
SC Velbert 1+ goals
72%
SC Velbert 2+ goals
37%
SC Velbert 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)
74%
SC Velbert (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Nettetal at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.56 · 77 matches

SC Velbert away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Nettetal attack 1.70 + SC Velbert defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.26

SC Velbert attack 1.00 + Union Nettetal defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Union Nettetal scores more
59%
level
20%
SC Velbert scores more
21%

Union Nettetal at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Union Nettetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Union Nettetal face SC Velbert (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with Union Nettetal hosting SC Velbert. Match starts November 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Union Nettetal host SC Velbert at Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.