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SC Velbert vs Union Nettetal — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SC Velbert
SC Velbert
FT
1 – 1
Union Nettetal
Union Nettetal
11/7/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 12Sportplatz Am Böttinger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SC Velbert48%
×Draw22%
Union Nettetal30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Velbert
2.02
Union Nettetal
1.58

SC Velbert creates 28% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 74 away

creates per match

SC Velbert
1.81
Union Nettetal
1.34

allows per match

SC Velbert
1.81
Union Nettetal
2.23

finishing

SC Velbert+0.00on par
Union Nettetal+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Velbert ↓

Union Nettetal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

SC Velbert or draw
70%
SC Velbert or Union Nettetal
78%
Draw or Union Nettetal
52%

Winning margin

SC Velbert wins by 2+
27%
Union Nettetal wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SC Velbert 1+ goals
87%
SC Velbert 2+ goals
60%
SC Velbert 3+ goals
33%
Union Nettetal 1+ goals
79%
Union Nettetal 2+ goals
47%
Union Nettetal 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SC Velbert (draw refunded)
61%
Union Nettetal (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Velbert at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

Union Nettetal away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Velbert attack 1.81 + Union Nettetal defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.02

Union Nettetal attack 1.34 + SC Velbert defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SC Velbert scores more
48%
level
22%
Union Nettetal scores more
30%

SC Velbert at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SC Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Velbert vs Union Nettetal

SC Velbert and Union Nettetal drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Am Böttinger in Velbert.