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Union Nettetal vs Jahn Hiesfeld — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Union Nettetal
Union Nettetal
CANC
14:15
Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
3/14/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 30Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Union Nettetal50%
×Draw21%
Jahn Hiesfeld29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Nettetal
2.08
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.53

Union Nettetal creates 36% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 22 away

creates per match

Union Nettetal
1.70
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.50

allows per match

Union Nettetal
1.56
Jahn Hiesfeld
2.45

finishing

Union Nettetal+0.00on par
Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Nettetal ↓

Jahn Hiesfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Union Nettetal or draw
71%
Union Nettetal or Jahn Hiesfeld
79%
Draw or Jahn Hiesfeld
50%

Winning margin

Union Nettetal wins by 2+
29%
Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Union Nettetal 1+ goals
87%
Union Nettetal 2+ goals
61%
Union Nettetal 3+ goals
34%
Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
78%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
45%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)
64%
Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Nettetal at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.56 · 77 matches

Jahn Hiesfeld away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Nettetal attack 1.70 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.08

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 1.50 + Union Nettetal defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union Nettetal scores more
50%
level
21%
Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
29%

Union Nettetal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Union Nettetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Union Nettetal face Jahn Hiesfeld (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with Union Nettetal hosting Jahn Hiesfeld. Match starts March 14, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Union Nettetal host Jahn Hiesfeld at Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.