Jahn Hiesfeld 1–3 Union Nettetal: Result & Stats

Jahn Hiesfeld

FT

1 – 3

Union Nettetal

11/28/2021

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 14Kunstrasenplatz TV Jahn Hiesfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jahn Hiesfeld50%

×Draw21%

Union Nettetal29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jahn HiesfeldExpected goals in this matchUnion Nettetal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.60

Jahn Hiesfeld

2.12

Union Nettetal

1.60

Jahn Hiesfeld creates 32% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 74 away

2.00

creates per match

1.34

1.85

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Jahn Hiesfeld

2.00

Union Nettetal

1.34

allows per match

Jahn Hiesfeld

1.85

Union Nettetal

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par

Union Nettetal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Hiesfeld ↓

Union Nettetal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Jahn Hiesfeld or draw

71%

Jahn Hiesfeld or Union Nettetal

79%

Draw or Union Nettetal

50%

Winning margin

Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+

29%

Union Nettetal wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals

88%

Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals

62%

Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals

35%

Union Nettetal 1+ goals

80%

Union Nettetal 2+ goals

47%

Union Nettetal 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)

63%

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Hiesfeld at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

Union Nettetal away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 2.00 + Union Nettetal defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.12

Union Nettetal attack 1.34 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jahn Hiesfeld scores more

50%

level

21%

Union Nettetal scores more

29%

Jahn Hiesfeld at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jahn Hiesfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff