Union Nettetal 3–1 Homberg: Result & Stats

Union Nettetal

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Homberg

10/1/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 8Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Union Nettetal43%

×Draw23%

Homberg34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union NettetalExpected goals in this matchHomberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.54

Union Nettetal

1.77

Homberg

1.54

Union Nettetal creates 15% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 71 away

1.70

creates per match

1.51

1.56

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Union Nettetal

1.70

Homberg

1.51

allows per match

Union Nettetal

1.56

Homberg

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Nettetal+0.00on par

Homberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Nettetal ↓

Homberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Union Nettetal or draw

66%

Union Nettetal or Homberg

77%

Draw or Homberg

57%

Winning margin

Union Nettetal wins by 2+

23%

Homberg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Union Nettetal 1+ goals

83%

Union Nettetal 2+ goals

53%

Union Nettetal 3+ goals

26%

Homberg 1+ goals

79%

Homberg 2+ goals

45%

Homberg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)

56%

Homberg (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Nettetal at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.56 · 77 matches

Homberg away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.83 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Nettetal attack 1.70 + Homberg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

Homberg attack 1.51 + Union Nettetal defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Union Nettetal scores more

43%

level

23%

Homberg scores more

34%

Union Nettetal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Union Nettetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff