Homberg 0–1 Union Nettetal: Result & Stats

Homberg

FT

0 – 1

Union Nettetal

3/24/2024

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 24PCC-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Homberg56%

×Draw21%

Union Nettetal22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HombergExpected goals in this matchUnion Nettetal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.22

Homberg

2.05

Union Nettetal

1.22

Homberg creates 68% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 74 away

1.87

creates per match

1.34

1.10

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Homberg

1.87

Union Nettetal

1.34

allows per match

Homberg

1.10

Union Nettetal

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Homberg+0.00on par

Union Nettetal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homberg ↓

Union Nettetal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Homberg or draw

78%

Homberg or Union Nettetal

79%

Draw or Union Nettetal

44%

Winning margin

Homberg wins by 2+

34%

Union Nettetal wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Homberg 1+ goals

87%

Homberg 2+ goals

61%

Homberg 3+ goals

33%

Union Nettetal 1+ goals

70%

Union Nettetal 2+ goals

34%

Union Nettetal 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Homberg (draw refunded)

72%

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homberg at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

Union Nettetal away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homberg attack 1.87 + Union Nettetal defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.05

Union Nettetal attack 1.34 + Homberg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Homberg scores more

56%

level

21%

Union Nettetal scores more

22%

Homberg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Homberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff