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Union Nettetal vs Biemenhorst — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Union Nettetal
Union Nettetal
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Biemenhorst
Biemenhorst
10/9/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 10Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Union Nettetal54%
×Draw20%
Biemenhorst26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Nettetal
2.25
Biemenhorst
1.52

Union Nettetal creates 48% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 34 away

creates per match

Union Nettetal
1.70
Biemenhorst
1.47

allows per match

Union Nettetal
1.56
Biemenhorst
2.79

finishing

Union Nettetal+0.00on par
Biemenhorst+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Nettetal ↓

Biemenhorst →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Union Nettetal or draw
74%
Union Nettetal or Biemenhorst
80%
Draw or Biemenhorst
46%

Winning margin

Union Nettetal wins by 2+
33%
Biemenhorst wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Union Nettetal 1+ goals
89%
Union Nettetal 2+ goals
65%
Union Nettetal 3+ goals
39%
Biemenhorst 1+ goals
78%
Biemenhorst 2+ goals
45%
Biemenhorst 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)
68%
Biemenhorst (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Nettetal at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.56 · 77 matches

Biemenhorst away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Nettetal attack 1.70 + Biemenhorst defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.25

Biemenhorst attack 1.47 + Union Nettetal defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Union Nettetal scores more
54%
level
20%
Biemenhorst scores more
26%

Union Nettetal at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Union Nettetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Union Nettetal 1–2 Biemenhorst

Biemenhorst beat Union Nettetal 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 9, 2024.

The match was played at Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn in Nettetal.