Biemenhorst 4–1 Union Nettetal: Result & Stats

Biemenhorst

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Union Nettetal

4/6/2025

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 26Intersport-Pieron-Arena Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Biemenhorst39%

×Draw21%

Union Nettetal40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BiemenhorstExpected goals in this matchUnion Nettetal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.94

Biemenhorst

1.93

Union Nettetal

1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 74 away

1.62

creates per match

1.34

2.53

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Biemenhorst

1.62

Union Nettetal

1.34

allows per match

Biemenhorst

2.53

Union Nettetal

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Biemenhorst+0.00on par

Union Nettetal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biemenhorst ↓

Union Nettetal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Biemenhorst or draw

60%

Biemenhorst or Union Nettetal

79%

Draw or Union Nettetal

61%

Winning margin

Biemenhorst wins by 2+

21%

Union Nettetal wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Biemenhorst 1+ goals

85%

Biemenhorst 2+ goals

57%

Biemenhorst 3+ goals

30%

Union Nettetal 1+ goals

86%

Union Nettetal 2+ goals

58%

Union Nettetal 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Biemenhorst (draw refunded)

50%

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biemenhorst at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.53 · 34 matches

Union Nettetal away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biemenhorst attack 1.62 + Union Nettetal defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.93

Union Nettetal attack 1.34 + Biemenhorst defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Biemenhorst scores more

39%

level

21%

Union Nettetal scores more

40%

Union Nettetal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union Nettetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff