Union Namur 2–1 Crossing Schaerbeek: Result & Stats

Union Namur

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Crossing Schaerbeek

A. Sbaa 63'

D. Lwangi 15'

G. Kakudji 68'

11/30/2025

League #487 · ACFF - 15Terrain Jambes ADEPS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Union Namur34%

×Draw24%

Crossing Schaerbeek42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union NamurExpected goals in this matchCrossing Schaerbeek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.68

Union Namur

1.48

Crossing Schaerbeek

1.68

Crossing Schaerbeek creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

1.22

creates per match

1.25

2.11

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Union Namur

1.22

Crossing Schaerbeek

1.25

allows per match

Union Namur

2.11

Crossing Schaerbeek

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Namur+0.00on par

Crossing Schaerbeek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Namur ↓

Crossing Schaerbeek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Union Namur or draw

58%

Union Namur or Crossing Schaerbeek

76%

Draw or Crossing Schaerbeek

66%

Winning margin

Union Namur wins by 2+

16%

Crossing Schaerbeek wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Union Namur 1+ goals

77%

Union Namur 2+ goals

43%

Union Namur 3+ goals

19%

Crossing Schaerbeek 1+ goals

81%

Crossing Schaerbeek 2+ goals

50%

Crossing Schaerbeek 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Union Namur (draw refunded)

44%

Crossing Schaerbeek (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Namur at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

Crossing Schaerbeek away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Namur attack 1.22 + Crossing Schaerbeek defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Crossing Schaerbeek attack 1.25 + Union Namur defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Union Namur scores more

34%

level

24%

Crossing Schaerbeek scores more

42%

Crossing Schaerbeek at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Crossing Schaerbeek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

15'

D. Lwangi

63'

A. Sbaa

68'

G. Kakudji

90'

Union

Crossing

Manager: D. Vandenbroeck

Manager: D. De Herdt