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Crossing Schaerbeek vs Union Namur — League #487 2026

Crossing Schaerbeek
Crossing Schaerbeek
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 3
Union Namur
Union Namur
E. Casagolda 41' (pen), 35'
B. Yagan 14'
Y. Loemba 30'
M. Koume 29'
D. Lwangi 8'
10/19/2025League #487League #487 · ACFF - 9Stade Renan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Crossing Schaerbeek49%
×Draw20%
Union Namur30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crossing Schaerbeek
2.25
Union Namur
1.75

Crossing Schaerbeek creates 29% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Crossing Schaerbeek
2.25
Union Namur
1.50

allows per match

Crossing Schaerbeek
2.00
Union Namur
2.25

finishing

Crossing Schaerbeek+0.00on par
Union Namur+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crossing Schaerbeek ↓

Union Namur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Crossing Schaerbeek or draw
70%
Crossing Schaerbeek or Union Namur
80%
Draw or Union Namur
51%

Winning margin

Crossing Schaerbeek wins by 2+
29%
Union Namur wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Crossing Schaerbeek 1+ goals
89%
Crossing Schaerbeek 2+ goals
65%
Crossing Schaerbeek 3+ goals
39%
Union Namur 1+ goals
83%
Union Namur 2+ goals
52%
Union Namur 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Crossing Schaerbeek (draw refunded)
62%
Union Namur (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crossing Schaerbeek at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Union Namur away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crossing Schaerbeek attack 2.25 + Union Namur defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.25

Union Namur attack 1.50 + Crossing Schaerbeek defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Crossing Schaerbeek scores more
49%
level
20%
Union Namur scores more
30%

Crossing Schaerbeek at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Crossing Schaerbeek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
D. Lwangi
14'
B. Yagan
29'
M. Koume
30'
Y. Loemba
35'
E. Casagolda
41'
E. CasagoldaPenalty
Crossing
Union
D. De Herdt
Manager: D. De Herdt
D. Vandenbroeck
Manager: D. Vandenbroeck

League #487: Crossing Schaerbeek 3–3 Union Namur

Crossing Schaerbeek and Union Namur drew 3-3 in League #487 on October 19, 2025.

Goals: D. Lwangi (8'), B. Yagan (14'), M. Koume (29'), Y. Loemba (30'), E. Casagolda (35', 41' pen).

The match was played at Stade Renan in Schaerbeek.