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Unión Molinense vs SFC Minerva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
12/21/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 15Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Unión Molinense56%
×Draw23%
SFC Minerva21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Molinense
1.77
SFC Minerva
0.97

Unión Molinense creates 82% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 63 away

creates per match

Unión Molinense
1.87
SFC Minerva
1.03

allows per match

Unión Molinense
0.90
SFC Minerva
1.67

finishing

Unión Molinense+0.00on par
SFC Minerva+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Molinense ↓

SFC Minerva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Unión Molinense or draw
79%
Unión Molinense or SFC Minerva
77%
Draw or SFC Minerva
44%

Winning margin

Unión Molinense wins by 2+
32%
SFC Minerva wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals
83%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
53%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
26%
SFC Minerva 1+ goals
62%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
25%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
73%
SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Molinense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

SFC Minerva away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.67 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Molinense attack 1.87 + SFC Minerva defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

SFC Minerva attack 1.03 + Unión Molinense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Unión Molinense scores more
56%
level
23%
SFC Minerva scores more
21%

Unión Molinense at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Unión Molinense 5–1 SFC Minerva

Unión Molinense beat SFC Minerva 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas in Molina de Segura.