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SFC Minerva vs Unión Molinense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
9/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Campo Municipal El Secante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

SFC Minerva35%
×Draw29%
Unión Molinense37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFC Minerva
1.09
Unión Molinense
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 67 away

creates per match

SFC Minerva
1.22
Unión Molinense
1.18

allows per match

SFC Minerva
1.08
Unión Molinense
0.97

finishing

SFC Minerva+0.00on par
Unión Molinense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFC Minerva ↓

Unión Molinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SFC Minerva or draw
63%
SFC Minerva or Unión Molinense
71%
Draw or Unión Molinense
65%

Winning margin

SFC Minerva wins by 2+
14%
Unión Molinense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SFC Minerva 1+ goals
66%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
30%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
10%
Unión Molinense 1+ goals
68%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
31%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
49%
Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFC Minerva at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Unión Molinense away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFC Minerva attack 1.22 + Unión Molinense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Unión Molinense attack 1.18 + SFC Minerva defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

SFC Minerva scores more
35%
level
29%
Unión Molinense scores more
37%

Unión Molinense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SFC Minerva vs Unión Molinense

SFC Minerva and Unión Molinense drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Secante in Alumbres.