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Unión Molinense vs Mazarrón FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
11/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 11Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Unión Molinense50%
×Draw25%
Mazarrón FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Molinense
1.60
Mazarrón FC
1.05

Unión Molinense creates 52% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 63 away

creates per match

Unión Molinense
1.87
Mazarrón FC
1.21

allows per match

Unión Molinense
0.90
Mazarrón FC
1.33

finishing

Unión Molinense+0.00on par
Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Molinense ↓

Mazarrón FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Unión Molinense or draw
75%
Unión Molinense or Mazarrón FC
75%
Draw or Mazarrón FC
50%

Winning margin

Unión Molinense wins by 2+
26%
Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals
80%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
47%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
22%
Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
65%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
28%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
67%
Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Molinense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Mazarrón FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Molinense attack 1.87 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Mazarrón FC attack 1.21 + Unión Molinense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Unión Molinense scores more
50%
level
25%
Mazarrón FC scores more
25%

Unión Molinense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Unión Molinense 1–1 Mazarrón FC

Unión Molinense and Mazarrón FC drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas in Molina de Segura.