Mazarrón FC 1–0 Unión Molinense: Result & Stats

Mazarrón FC

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Unión Molinense

3/29/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 28Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Mazarrón FC37%

×Draw29%

Unión Molinense34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mazarrón FCExpected goals in this matchUnión Molinense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.10

Mazarrón FC

1.15

Unión Molinense

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 67 away

1.33

creates per match

1.18

1.02

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Mazarrón FC

1.33

Unión Molinense

1.18

allows per match

Mazarrón FC

1.02

Unión Molinense

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Unión Molinense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazarrón FC ↓

Unión Molinense →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mazarrón FC or draw

66%

Mazarrón FC or Unión Molinense

71%

Draw or Unión Molinense

63%

Winning margin

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+

15%

Unión Molinense wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals

68%

Mazarrón FC 2+ goals

32%

Mazarrón FC 3+ goals

11%

Unión Molinense 1+ goals

67%

Unión Molinense 2+ goals

30%

Unión Molinense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)

52%

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mazarrón FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

Unión Molinense away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mazarrón FC attack 1.33 + Unión Molinense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.15

Unión Molinense attack 1.18 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mazarrón FC scores more

37%

level

29%

Unión Molinense scores more

34%

Mazarrón FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mazarrón FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mazarrón FC vs Unión Molinense

Mazarrón FC beat Unión Molinense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 29, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón in Mazarrón.

Mazarrón FC vs Unión Molinense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mazarrón FC vs Unión Molinense