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Unión Molinense vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Samuel López 87'
Dani Díez 90+5'
10/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 6Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Unión Molinense48%
×Draw26%
La Unión Atlético26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Molinense
1.49
La Unión Atlético
1.01

Unión Molinense creates 48% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 45 away

creates per match

Unión Molinense
1.87
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Unión Molinense
0.90
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Unión Molinense+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Molinense ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Unión Molinense or draw
74%
Unión Molinense or La Unión Atlético
74%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
52%

Winning margin

Unión Molinense wins by 2+
24%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals
77%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
44%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
19%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
64%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
27%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
65%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Molinense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Molinense attack 1.87 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.49

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Unión Molinense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Unión Molinense scores more
48%
level
26%
La Unión Atlético scores more
26%

Unión Molinense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
Juanan← Txiki
60'
Dani Díez← Sergio Jiménez
60'
Fran Cortés← Higón
73'
Sergio Sánchez← Nico González
82'
Diego Gámiz← Vitolo
87'
Iván Contreras← Feli Martínez
87'
Samuel López
90+5'
Dani Díez
Unión
La
Xabi Irureta
Irureta
Mario Hernández
Hernández
Sergi Valls
Valls
Walter Navarro
Navarro
Higón
▼
Higón
David Valdeolivas
Valdeoliv
Sergio Jiménez
▼
Jiménez
Monty
Monty
Javi Grillo
Grillo
Vitolo
▼
Vitolo
Belencoso
Belencoso
Hugo Guil
Guil
Txiki
▼
Txiki
Abel López
López
Iván Zaragoza
Zaragoza
Francisco Garnés
Garnés
Carlos Almada
Almada
Champi
Champi
Francisco Matallana
Matallana
Nico González
▼
González
Samuel López
⚽
López
Feli Martínez
▼
Martínez
Sergio Sánchez
Manager: Sergio Sánchez
36'▲Juanan←▼Txiki
73'▲Sergio Sánchez←▼Nico González
87'▲Iván Contreras←▼Feli Martínez

Unión Molinense substitutes

JuananSánchezContreras
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
60'▲Dani Díez←▼Sergio Jiménez
60'▲Fran Cortés←▼Higón
82'▲Diego Gámiz←▼Vitolo

La Unión Atlético substitutes

DíezCortésGámiz

Match Recap: Unión Molinense vs La Unión Atlético

Unión Molinense and La Unión Atlético drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 16, 2022.

Goals: Samuel López (87'), Dani Díez (90+5').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas in Molina de Segura.