La Unión Atlético 0–2 Unión Molinense

La Unión Atlético

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Unión Molinense

Renato 75'

Pablo Abadía 60'

2/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 21Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

La Unión Atlético46%

×Draw28%

Unión Molinense26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Unión AtléticoExpected goals in this matchUnión Molinense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.90

La Unión Atlético

1.29

Unión Molinense

0.90

La Unión Atlético creates 43% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 67 away

1.60

creates per match

1.18

0.62

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

La Unión Atlético

1.60

Unión Molinense

1.18

allows per match

La Unión Atlético

0.62

Unión Molinense

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Unión Molinense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

Unión Molinense →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw

74%

La Unión Atlético or Unión Molinense

72%

Draw or Unión Molinense

54%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+

21%

Unión Molinense wins by 2+

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals

72%

La Unión Atlético 2+ goals

37%

La Unión Atlético 3+ goals

14%

Unión Molinense 1+ goals

59%

Unión Molinense 2+ goals

23%

Unión Molinense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)

64%

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Unión Molinense away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + Unión Molinense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.29

Unión Molinense attack 1.18 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more

46%

level

28%

Unión Molinense scores more

26%

La Unión Atlético at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

Francisco Matallana← Nico González

60'

Belencoso← Javi Rosa

60'

Dani Díez← Vitolo

60'

Álex Briega← Sergio Arribas

60'

Pablo Abadía

65'

Fran Cortés← Josema Vivancos

75'

Renato

80'

Adrián Aguirre← Walter Navarro

87'

Juan Asensio← Feli Martínez

89'

A. Hassi← Renato

Unión

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Manuel Palomeque

60'▲Belencoso←▼Javi Rosa

60'▲Dani Díez←▼Vitolo

60'▲Álex Briega←▼Sergio Arribas

65'▲Fran Cortés←▼Josema Vivancos

80'▲Adrián Aguirre←▼Walter Navarro

La Unión Atlético substitutes

BelencosoDíezBriegaCortésAguirre

Manager: Sergio Sánchez

53'▲Francisco Matallana←▼Nico González

87'▲Juan Asensio←▼Feli Martínez

89'▲A. Hassi←▼Renato

Unión Molinense substitutes

MatallanaAsensioHassi

Match Recap: La Unión Atlético vs Unión Molinense

Unión Molinense beat La Unión Atlético 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 12, 2023.

Goals: Pablo Abadía (60'), Renato (75').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Unión.

La Unión Atlético vs Unión Molinense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: La Unión Atlético vs Unión Molinense