Unión Molinense 2–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Unión Molinense

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Ballesta 89' (pen)

Esteban López 15'

Pedro 76' (OG)

11/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 10Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Unión Molinense56%

×Draw24%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión MolinenseExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.88

Unión Molinense

1.66

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.88

Unión Molinense creates 89% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 78 away

1.87

creates per match

0.85

0.90

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Unión Molinense

1.87

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Unión Molinense

0.90

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Molinense+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Molinense ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Unión Molinense or draw

80%

Unión Molinense or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

76%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

44%

Winning margin

Unión Molinense wins by 2+

30%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

Team goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals

81%

Unión Molinense 2+ goals

49%

Unión Molinense 3+ goals

23%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

59%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

22%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)

74%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unión Molinense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unión Molinense attack 1.87 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.66

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Unión Molinense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Unión Molinense scores more

56%

level

24%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

20%

Unión Molinense at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Esteban López

55'

Marcos Díaz← Fernando Carmona

55'

A. Hassi← José Rivas

62'

Serrano← Carlos Palazón

68'

Renato← Manu Costa

69'

Pablo Guillen← Fran Martínez

69'

Hamza Agnaou← Fran Conesa

75'

Iñaki Quereda← Samuel López

75'

Nico González← Barberá

75'

Ballesta← Ángel Andugar

76'

PedroOwn goal

89'

Felipe Valverde← Álvaro Moñino

89'

BallestaPenalty

Unión

CAP

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Sergio Sánchez

62'▲Serrano←▼Carlos Palazón

68'▲Renato←▼Manu Costa

75'▲Iñaki Quereda←▼Samuel López

75'▲Nico González←▼Barberá

75'▲Ballesta←▼Ángel Andugar

Unión Molinense substitutes

SerranoRenatoQueredaGonzálezBallesta

Manager: Francisco Lorca

55'▲Marcos Díaz←▼Fernando Carmona

55'▲A. Hassi←▼José Rivas

69'▲Pablo Guillen←▼Fran Martínez

69'▲Hamza Agnaou←▼Fran Conesa

89'▲Felipe Valverde←▼Álvaro Moñino

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

DíazHassiGuillenAgnaouValverde

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Unión Molinense 2–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Unión Molinense beat CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 12, 2023.

Goals: Esteban López (15'), Pedro (76' o.g.), Ballesta (89' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas in Molina de Segura.

Unión Molinense vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Unión Molinense 2–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia