CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2–2 Unión Molinense

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Unión Molinense

Samuel Martínez 80'

Fernando Carmona 27'

Nacho López 90+2'

Pablo Abadía 89' (pen)

2/26/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 23Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia32%

×Draw30%

Unión Molinense38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchUnión Molinense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.11

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.00

Unión Molinense

1.11

Unión Molinense creates 11% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 67 away

1.03

creates per match

1.18

1.04

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Unión Molinense

1.18

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Unión Molinense

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Unión Molinense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Unión Molinense →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

62%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Unión Molinense

70%

Draw or Unión Molinense

68%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

12%

Unión Molinense wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

63%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

26%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals

67%

Unión Molinense 2+ goals

30%

Unión Molinense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

46%

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Unión Molinense away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Unión Molinense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Unión Molinense attack 1.18 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

32%

level

30%

Unión Molinense scores more

38%

Unión Molinense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Fernando Carmona

39'

Nacho López← M. di Menno

56'

Juan Asensio← Francisco Garnés

67'

Jesús Ros← Alejandro Pascual

80'

Samuel Martínez

85'

Asensio Miñarro← Fernando Carmona

87'

Javier Soto← Francisco Matallana

87'

Carlos Almada← Samuel López

89'

Pablo AbadíaPenalty

90+2'

Nacho López

CAP

Unión

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Carmona

Lopez

⚽

Martínez

Manager: Francisco Lorca

67'▲Jesús Ros←▼Alejandro Pascual

85'▲Asensio Miñarro←▼Fernando Carmona

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

RosMiñarro

Manager: Sergio Sánchez

39'▲Nacho López←▼M. di Menno

56'▲Juan Asensio←▼Francisco Garnés

87'▲Javier Soto←▼Francisco Matallana

87'▲Carlos Almada←▼Samuel López

Unión Molinense substitutes

LópezAsensioSotoAlmada

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Unión Molinense

CAP Ciudad de Murcia and Unión Molinense drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 26, 2023.

Goals: Fernando Carmona (27'), Samuel Martínez (80'), Pablo Abadía (89' pen), Nacho López (90+2').

The match was played at Estadio José Barnés in Murcia.

CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Unión Molinense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Unión Molinense