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Unión Molinense vs Algar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Algar
Algar
10/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unión Molinense64%
×Draw21%
Algar15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Molinense
1.91
Algar
0.78

Unión Molinense creates 145% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

Unión Molinense
1.87
Algar
0.65

allows per match

Unión Molinense
0.90
Algar
1.94

finishing

Unión Molinense+0.00on par
Algar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Molinense ↓

Algar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Unión Molinense or draw
85%
Unión Molinense or Algar
79%
Draw or Algar
36%

Winning margin

Unión Molinense wins by 2+
39%
Algar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals
85%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
57%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
30%
Algar 1+ goals
54%
Algar 2+ goals
18%
Algar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
81%
Algar (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Molinense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Algar away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Molinense attack 1.87 + Algar defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.91

Algar attack 0.65 + Unión Molinense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Unión Molinense scores more
64%
level
21%
Algar scores more
15%

Unión Molinense at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Unión Molinense 3–0 Algar

Unión Molinense beat Algar 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas in Molina de Segura.